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Optimally combining expertise to predict the likelihood of future events

Optimally combining expertise to predict the likelihood of future events

The Metaculus prediction engine solicits, tracks, analyzes, and optimally aggregates expert forecasts, to provide the most precise possible predictions about any future event. Every day, every individual, group, and organization makes a multitude of decisions. Most are trivial. Some are worth billions of dollars. And every one is based on a prediction about the future. But although our minds are incredible prediction engines, the world is complex, and our predictions are never as good as we would like -- and individual domain experts are generally much less accurate than they think or claim. Metaculus takes human-powered prediction and adds advanced data analytics to assemble the most accurate possible predictions. As it expands from its focus on scientific breakthroughs and technological advances, it will provide a platform to connect clients to the best prediction from the known best predictors, leading to the best decisions.
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Co Founder Metaculus, Professor of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California at Santa Cruz